"To study is not to consume ideas, but to create and re-create them."
- Paulo Freire, The Act of Study
In The Politics of Education: Culture, Power and Liberation Paulo Freire provides a unique set of criteria for developing a critical posture in the act of study:
a) The reader should assume the role of subject of the act.
b) The act of study, in sum, is an attitude toward the world.
c) Studying a specific subject calls for us, whenever possible, to be familiar with a given bibliography, in either a general subject or the area of our ongoing inquiry.
d) The act of study assumes a dialectical relationship between reader and author, whose reflections are found with the themes he treats.
e) The act of study demands a sense of modesty.
This sums up an accurate description of my critical approach in study. Especially the "modest" apprehension of challenging texts. As he says, "if we really assume a modest attitude compatible with a critical attitude, we need not feel foolish when confronted with even great difficulties in trying to discern a deeper meaning from a text.... Understanding a text isn't a gift from someone else. It requires patience and commitment..."
- MindTech Sweden
John Markoff in the NY Times recently took up the theme of a global emergence of Artificial Intelligence in his article the Coming Superbrain. Many futurologists have dreamed of a utopian movement toward collective intelligence. Such social prophets as Jeremy Rifkin have been proselytizing for a new "empathic civilization", one that presents a counter-narrative that allows humanity to see itself as an extended family living in a shared and interconnected world, one opposed to the dominate ideology of neoliberal and neoconservative globalist visions (see this...) Others such as Pierre Levy formed a teleological view of this movement of technological progress toward collective intelligence - a conscious biobrainsphere ... a cosmic brain that will bloom like an infinite flower made of love." He even went so far as prophesying that collective intelligence would form the nucleous of a 'religion of the future', one that would fulfill humanities mission of growing a 'global brain' aware of itself. Such measures of fantasy spark other new age prophets like Raymond Kurzweil into visions of a posthuman transcension through the fusion of genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics wherein humans will merge with their machines and become something else... homo futuras?
With all these grand visions of a posthuman future around us one wonders what will happen to those poor souls who will be left behind to work the soil, plant the seeds, grow the crops, and live out their lives in a wasteland of urban and social decay. It seems the new global elite plan on transcending the limits not only of Capital, but of the very truth of embodied existence as well. Yet, will they do this in a benign fashion, or will they as all elites in times past use their new found power to enslave the rest of humanity in an even more dystopic nightmare of control and power?
In Sweden a new group is investigating the abuse of power by both corporate and government in experimentation on the populace.Mind Control Of course such conspiracy based theories have been brought forward many times, but none has begun to legitimize the critical process as much as these mavericks. Their study of the new brain technologies in alliance with surveillance in the new military-industrial complex should be on the forefront of any worthwhile oppositional critics agenda.
""Top Secret America" is a project nearly two years in the making that describes the huge national security buildup in the United States after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks."
I like what their doing.... let the secret world become visible. How much more will it take. Washington Post is doing us all a great service uncovering the truth of the American Federal National Security State. read more....
"When it comes to national security, all too often no expense is spared and few questions are asked - with the result an enterprise so massive that nobody in government has a full understanding of it. It is, as Dana Priest and William M. Arkin have found, ubiquitous, often inefficient and mostly invisible to the people it is meant to protect and who fund it.
The articles in this series and an online database at topsecretamerica.com depict the scope and complexity of the government's national security program through interactive maps and other graphics. Every data point on the Web site is substantiated by at least two public records.
Because of the nature of this project, we allowed government officials to see the Web site several months ago and asked them to tell us of any specific concerns. They offered none at that time. As the project evolved, we shared the Web site's revised capabilities. Again, we asked for specific concerns. One government body objected to certain data points on the site and explained why; we removed those items. Another agency objected that the entire Web site could pose a national security risk but declined to offer specific comments.
We made other public safety judgments about how much information to show on the Web site. For instance, we used the addresses of company headquarters buildings, information which, in most cases, is available on companies' own Web sites, but we limited the degree to which readers can use the zoom function on maps to pinpoint those or other locations."
- from the editor, The Washington Post
"With the current globalization of our problems, we need to extend our circle of empathy and view humanity as a worldwide extended human family. As long as we refrain from facing that challenge, divisiveness and unsolvable conflicts will persist."
- Rodrigue Tremblay, For a More Ethical Civilization
What would a civilization based upon a radical humanistic perspective and global ethics look like? Rodrigue Tremblay tells us:
In such a such a civilization,
• All human beings would be equal in dignity and in human rights.
• Life on this planet would not be devalued and seen as only a preparation for a better life after death, somewhere beyond the clouds.
• The virtues of tolerance and of human liberty would be proclaimed and applied, subject only to the requirements of public order.
• Human solidarity and sharing would be better accepted as a protection against poverty and deprivation.
• The manipulation and domination of others through lies, propaganda, and exploitation schemes of all kinds would be less prevalent.
• There would be less reliance on superstition and religion to understand the Universe and to solve life's problems and more on reason, logic and science.
• Better care of the Earth's natural environment—land, soil, water, air and space—would be taken in order to bequeath a brighter heritage to future generations.
• We would have ended the primitive practice of resorting to violence or to wars to resolve differences and conflicts.
• There would be more genuine democracy in the organization of public affairs, according to individual freedom and responsibility.
• Governments would see that their first and most important task is to help develop children's intelligence and talents through education.
All high sounding and wonderful ideas, but are they realistic in an age of war, famine, and ecocide? One can read such ideas as the UN Human Rights manifesto and think: yes, grand stuff, but who will enforce this grand idea? Will the current economic and political rulers of the world enact measures to incorporate such grand ideology in their everyday practices? Don't hold your breath. Will the excluded, the refugees, the millions of displaced inhabitants of our stateless camps of hungry citizens of the new world disorder become a part of this humanist world?
Every time I read some ex government official cum morality play puppeteer begin to preach a new humanism I want to reach for - as Johnny Cash said when "Death comes knocking at my door, I reach for my shotgun." So beware of old guard members bearing Trojan gifts of humanistic idealism: it smells of death camps to me.... or, maybe, just another ghetto for the world's poor. More likely a new vision of global apartheid than a truly humane realm of freedom. M.N. Roy the only great radical humanist of the last century once said: "A mighty resurgence of the common man and woman only can save modern civilization. To inspire that resurgence, organize it, guide it to fruition- that is the mission of New Humanism." Let us hope that the truly creative common men and women of our planet will awaken from their long sleep and begin to reforge those ancient links of freedom so badly needed in our time.
implications for how historical change occurs."
N. Katherine Hayles, How We Became Posthuman
At the center of N. Katherine Hayles important work is a new historical and scientific model that goes beyond the Kuhnian model of incommensurable paradigms, as well as the Foucauldian model of sharp epistemic breaks. Instead she uses the concept of "seriation" in which ideas are "fabricated in a pattern of overlapping replication and innovation..." through a continuous series of feedback loops that engage the conceptual and material underpinnings of a theory. The simple idea is that through heated debate between intellectuals in pursuit of knowledge and practice discover a constellation of ideas that form a conceptual entity that corresponds to an objective artifact, possessing an internal coherence that defines it as an operational unit. This formation of this artifact of knowledge "marks the beginning of a period; its disassembly and reconstruction signal the transition to a different period. Indeed, periods are recognizable as such largely because constellations possess this coherence. Rarely is a constellation discarded wholesale. Rather, some of the ideas composing it are discarded, others are modified, and new ones are introduced. Like the attributes composing an artifact, the ideas in a constellation change in a patchwork pattern of old and new."
In her study on posthumanist science and culture she sees a historical seriation between three constellations of thought that overlap and replicate each other through innovation and change. The first dealt with homeostasis and the self-regulating systems that produce a steady-state theory of machines. Out of this was born a theory of the merger of organic life with machinic in a vision of the Cyborg. Second, was the concept of reflexivity: "reflexivity is the movement whereby that which has been used to generate a system is made, through a change perspective, to become part of the system it generates. This is the idea that the constellation of ideas generating our perception of reality are shown to be part of the reality it makes, which leads to an infinite regress of conceptual fabrication as in Borges tale of the dreamer who discovers he is being dreamed by another who in turn discovers he too is a dream dreamed. This conceptual constellation of ideas led ultimately to Marvin Minsky's ideas about downloading the information of our brain into a machine: "the clear implication is that if we can become the information we have constructed, we can achieve effective immortality." The third conceptual constellation overlapping the others was virtuality which is the cultural perception that material objects are interpenetrates by information patterns. As she states it "the perception of virtuality facilitates the development of virtual technologies, and the technologies reinforce the perception." Traces of homeostasis, reflexivity, and virtuality are found existing in overlapping and innovative cooperation and contested fields of scientific and cultural debates. She defines this slow emergence of a new conceptual matrix through the concept of skeuomorphs: skeuomorph is a design feature that is no longer functional in itself but that refers back to a feature that was functional at an earlier time. She alludes to an example of how car designers use fake stitching patterns in molded plastics that imitate earlier forms of leather stitching on dashboards.
She tells us that it is through narrative that we come to understand these issues, and that ultimately we need a combination of both literary and scientific analysis to understand the underlying patterns of innovation and replication that have allowed us to enter into this posthuman vision of life. She centers her discourse on the need to root our dialogues on embodiment rather than the pursuit of disembodied visions of a cyborgian future. Only then can we begin to understand ourselves as "embodied creatures living within and through embodied worlds and embodied words."
aimed at providing a theory of human behavior."
- Neuroeconomics: The Consilience of Brain and Decision,
Paul W. Glimcher and Aldo Rustichini
It seems the Corporatist State in collusion with the scientific community is working overtime to find a new Pavlovian science of human behavior. One that will finally bring us all into some tyrannical system of control through the use of desire:
"In this enterprise, the method and the standard set by neuroscience is the final goal: a reconstruction of the process and mechanism that goes from a stimulus presented to the subject to his final action in response. Economics provides the conceptual structure and the object of the analysis. In this emerging view, people are seen as deciding among options on the basis of the relative desirability of each option. This is true when they are in isolation as well as
when they are in strategic (interaction with few persons) and market (interaction with a large number) environments. The recent research we have been surveying describes how desirability is realized as a concrete object, a neural signal in the human and animal brain, rather than as a purely theoretical construction. Desirability is computed
and is represented in the brain, and we now have the means to test, measure, and represent this activation."
Read this article: read more....
The whole idea that a new economic alignment with psychology and neurosicence is in the works is beyond comprehension, yet one should have realized that the great Think Tanks, NGO's, and Scientific Institutions, etc. have always been funded by the Corporatist system of governance. What's so interesting is to see the subtle outlines of this new and insidious method to tyrannize over the consumerist society using a science that would know every detail of our decision making process from "stimulus" to final "response". The quantification of desire along with the ability to "test, measure, and represent" the whole process of choice and options will allow a programmatic manipulation of individual and collective behaviors beyond our wildest dreams. When will we awaken from our lethargic sleep and put an end to such insidious approaches in science? I will not hold my breath. All I can hope is that a few of us that still believe in individual liberty will keep on broadcasting the truth against all systems of tyranny our Global Corporatist State feigns to force upon us under the auspices of cooperation and progressive measures of peace and good will.
"A Dark Age is a culture's dead end."
- Jane Jacobs, Dark Age Ahead
Is the cultural matrix of our multicultural global heritage imploding? Are we in the first stages of a new Dark Age? The idea of cultural amnesia has been with us for some time now. We've been hearing of the erosion of the community and family, higher education, effective practice of science and technology, government policy makers out of touch with the real needs of their constituents, and the failure the intellectuals and media to to police themselves and provide the public the truth about our forthcoming cultural, political, environmental, and economic collapse. Jane Jacobs tells us that a culture becomes unstable and unsalvageable if "stabilizing forces themselves become ruined and irrelevant."
In defining the cause of such collapse she tells us that the key is in how a culture confronts the radical and chaotic jolts in circumstances that their main institutions cannot portend nor adequately adapt fast enough to overcome and thereby become irrelevant, and are forgotten, thrown upon the dustbin of history as quaint artifacts of a bygone era. She points out that when stabilizing institutions are thwarted by government and corporate power, as they are in our time, then the basic self-organizing and adaptive corrections become impossible bringing on a deluge of self-defeating policies that will ultimately lead to a new Dark Age.
Could the immigration situation brewing in Arizona portend the demise of America? Jacobs tells us that "cultural xenophobia is a frequent sequel to a society's decline from cultural vigor." Instead of a culture based upon the logic of reason and science with its progressive future-oriented ideology, she sees a return to a new mythos, one of religious, political, and economic fundamentalism which see to ground their conservative agenda in the old anchors of isolationism and fortress mentality, thereby cutting itself off from an open-society view of inclusion and diversity of thought and action. She shows us that instead of turning inward through isolation and close conservative systems, that would lead to a time of cultural amnesia, we need should discover what in our cultural heritage is still alive and vibrant and worth saving.
Jacobs warns us that most of the past great civilizations have vanished due in part to a lack of cultural self-awareness. "They have neglected to recognize that the true power of a successful culture resides in its example.... Any culture that jettisons the values that have given it competence, adaptability, and identity becomes weak and hollow. A culture can avoid that hazard only by tenaciously retaining the underlying values responsible for the culture's nature and success." Her hope for the future is express in the core American values expressed by Lincoln when he "that government of the people, by the people, and for the people shall not perish from the earth." Yet, as a libertarian, I would add that the said government should be local, not federal, that at the heart of our future lies a true awakening of the power of the people to rule themselves along the lines of true liberty rather than be guided by the elite factions of a neoliberal establishment that has degraded both our planet and our economic livelihood for generations to come.
- Zygmunt Bauman, Liquid Times Living in an Age of Uncertaintiy
In another statement just as absolute Bauman says: "Fear is arguably the most sinister of the demons nesting in the open societies of our time.(p. 26)." He would have us believe that power and politics have been severed in our time; that we all live in stultifying defeat, impotent to realize the dreams of a true democracy; and, that the only path to such a future lies in lifting ourselves out of this quagmire of national isolationism and lunacy and into the globalist system of cooperation and regulation, thereby allowing "politics to be lifted to the level where power has already settled, so enabling us to recover and repossess control over the forces shaping our shared condition while setting the range of our possibilities and the limits to our freedom to choose...".
Is some form of globalist governance the only viable solution to the problems facing humanity? With the looming crisis of climatic change, drought, famine, disease, water and soil depletion and erosion; the commodification of food, DNA, and other global commons artifacts becoming more and more entrenched within the power nexus of the corporatist portfolio; as well as the phantom wars fought in the middle-east over long dead ideologies of terrorism, oil, and mineral resources; and, finally, the global underworld of the illicit drugs, slave trade, etc., what is left of freedom and the rights of the individual in this nightmare that even James Joyce's Finnegan could no longer wake into or from some imagined nightmare of history? Or we all victims of some hyperplot, some grand narrative of psychotic proportions as many conspiracy theorists of both the left and right keep harping on? Or, is it just the same old tale of greed that any school child could read about in the secular and religious texts of our fragmented humanity?
Bauman tells us that Utopian dreams have always been the spawn of such desperate times as ours, that there are two conditions that must be in place for such dreams to appear: 1) the overwhelming feeling that the world is not right, that all has gone wrong with human endeavors, and that we need some kind of intervention some form of vision to overhaul all that is wrong with the world system as it is; and, 2) that we humans can accomplish this using the tools of reason and cooperation to forge a new blueprint for society, one based on social justice and egalitarian values instead of greed and misery. All high minded and commendable goals, but when good people begin to implement such Utopian fantasies into blueprints for reality what usually happens is just the opposite of social justice and egalitarian enactments, instead they usually lead to social tyrannies by the elite forces of an intellectual court of masters over the misguided mob. One does not have to go far to see this: Fascism and Communism of the twentieth-century speak to us of this pathway to ill begotten freedom. So what does Bauman offer instead? What vision of a Utopian future does he value?
He speaks of three types of Utopian ideologies: the Gamekeeper, the Gardner, and the Hunter. The Gamekeeper is more like the Luddite, the environmentalist and primitivism who would return us to Rousseau's vision of the natural man living in the wild. This vision is brought into stark relief by Derrick Jensen in his two voluminous volumes of endgame. The guiding premises of this vision as Jensen state the basic premises of the GameKeeper: read more...
Of that vision Bauman tells us that the main task of the Gatekeeper is to defend the land assigned to his wardenship against all human interference... to discover all hunters and trespassers who would destroy the "balance" of the natural world and disable their false system of snares, preserving the balance of nature and wildness.
The second type of Utopian ideology is that of the Gardner, who assume that without his intervention into the natural wildness of the world there would be no order and civilization. He is the agrarian tender of the earth who knows what is best for humans, what plants are good and safe and those that should be left in the wilds. He is the first pramatist and utilitarian of the world.
The final type is the Hunter. The vision of predatory capitalism: the globalist vision of a consumers paradise. This is the paradise of the neoliberal vision so well documented by David Harvey, A Brief History of Neoliberalism:
"“The idea of freedom ‘…degenerates into a mere advocacy of free enterprise’, which means ‘the fullness of freedom for those whose income leisure and security need no enhancing, and a mere pittance of liberty for the people, who may in vain attempt to make use of their democratic rights to gain shelter from the power of the owners of property’. But if, as is always the case, ‘no society is possible in which power and compulsion are absent, nor a world in which force has no function’, then the only way this liberal utopian vision could be sustained is by force, violence and authoritarianism. Liberal or neo-liberal utopianism is doomed, in Polyani’s view to be frustrated by authoritarianism, or even outright fascism”. "
Bauman tells us that Utopia is first and foremost "an image of another universe, different from the universe one knows or knows of. In addition, it anticipates a universe originated entirely by human wisdom and devotion. (p. 98)." Escapism seems to be the order of the day for most homegrown utopianists. Boredom and our deep sense of being overwhelmed by the failure of civilization and it's promise of solutions force many into either drugs or a consumer driven paradise of video nightmares instead of real human hope and progress.
Italo Calvino in Invisible Cities once said of an escape from the dark inferno of our civilization:
"The inferno of the living is not something that will be: if there is one, it is what is already here, the inferno where we live every day, that we form by being together. There are two ways to escape suffering it. The first is easy for many: accept the inferno and become such a part of it that you can no longer see it. The second is risky and demands constant vigilance and apprehension: seek and learn to recognize who and what, in the midst of the inferno, are not inferno, then make them endure, give them space."
The choice of which path is always yours to follow. Will you follow the path of least resistance, become a Hunter among hunters... a citizen of the global inferno who feeds the monstrous Leviathan of capitalism till the flames finally destroy us all in some unimaginable apocalypse of and endgame; or, will you begin to find "who or what" in the midst of us is not "inferno" and begin to weave a space of freedom around this light.
Online Library of Liberty: Fugitive Essays: Selected Writings of Frank Chodorov
http://oll.libertyfund.org/title/1730 ( January 22, 2010)
No truer words were ever spoken. Frank Chodorov was an out and out member of the party of Liberty, a Enemy of the State - against collectivism in any shade or color. As he states it:
"It is not the business of politics to engage in the economic affairs of man; its field is negative, keeping the peace, protecting life and property, meting out justice. That's all. In the common purpose of making a living, politics is worse than a nuisance; its intrusion must result in injustice, for, since its sole characteristic is coercion, it is incapable of adding anything to the economic well-being of man, and its coercive powers can be used only to take from some and give to others. That is injustice. This injustice, this dividing of mankind into privileged and disadvantaged classes, has always been the office of politics, whenever it intrudes into the way men make a living, and this is so regardless of the prevailing political form. So then, the economic maladjustments which cause friction between people cannot be corrected by any political system; the cure is in an understanding of economic principles and in ordering our social life to accord with them."
These essays written during the middle decades of the twentieth-century reflect a stubborn and lively mind, a man who above all stood for individual rights and liberty. Whether castigating the tyranny of conscription or the old Hegelian adage that the "state incarnates the divine idea on earth", he spoke up for the little guy, the man in main street who had a right to live his life free of government interference and control. And, yet, he was no friend of the Corporate tyranny of the monopolistic Federal Reserve system and it's supporting member Banks and Wall-Street combine, no he felt that the large movement of that had allowed an establishment between Wall-Street and Washington to be the most hideous illusion of all. He felt that just there a new feudalistic state had been invented that formed and shaped itself into an empire of elites who in our time have come to rule the planet.
He called for a political psychology that might root out the insidiousness of they type of gangsterism that we see in our own power blocs in Washington even today. "A community infested with gangsterism must take on the character
of its dominant group, for, like Gresham's law, decadent values tend to push out of circulation the values that call for integrity.(p. 23)" Above all we lack Integrity on either side of the isle within both the House and Senate. Both sides have had a heyday of it with our sham liberties. The change that Obama promised has been true to his message alright, but it was different than most believed - instead of redistributing the wealth from the top to the bottom, it was just the opposite: he has spawned upon the taxpaying public the greatest transfer of wealth in history to the very institutions of cronyism that piracy that destroyed our economic system. All in the name of that ill-founded philosophy of To Big To Fail. What a crock that both the Left and the Right have bought into this predatory vision.
Of course the big lie is that our government isn't bailing out these institutions to save capitalism, and thereby our economic livelihoods; no, it is more to the point, to admit the truth: the government is bailing out the institutions that keep it on power, plain and simple. Politicians tell us that it is expedient that we support this policy of piracy, that without robbing us of our children, grand children, and all our futures we might not have the love and protection of the State to protect us from the terrors that surround us on every side. But as Chodorov tells us: "Politics is, in the best sense of the word, unprincipled; it is concerned only with rulership, and experience has shown that in that trade the only valid rule of thought and behavior is expediency."
If we were to suddenly wake up and see the State for what it is, to see politicians for what they are, what would happen? Would we not realize that we'd been living in a psychotic world full of deranged mad men? Have we allowed our own government to form a new socialist state? And what type of socialism? Chodorov in speaking of collapse and how governments become tyrannies:
"As I have pointed out on numerous occasions, socialism is the end-product of an
economy sucked dry by privilege. It is the political control of an economy so
weakened by political intercession that it cannot stand up on its own feet. When the
remuneration for productive effort is insufficient to warrant the expenditure, when
rent, royalties, subsidies, and doles, to say nothing of the enforcement costs, absorb so
much that sustenance becomes precarious and the incentive for capital accumulation
disappears, then the state takes over and tries to make a go of it. It is not necessary
here to discuss the causes of the periodic paroxysm known as the “depression”; it
should be pointed out, however, that during such times the transference of economic
power from producer to politician is accelerated, for it is then that the bewildered
public is most susceptible to the most impossible promises. Nor need we go into the
subject of war to show how this political upheaval gives impetus to the socialistic
trend, not only by the new coercive instruments it puts into the hands of the state, but
more so by the correlative economic power conferred on the politician; the financing
of war through loans, to mention but one instance, creates a privilege class most
intimately concerned with the state's power of levying taxes.(p. 79)"
He once made a prophetic statement:
"Beguiled by the state's siren song of special privilege, the capitalists have abandoned
capitalism. In doing so they may well have made inevitable that day in the not-so distant
future when their dearly bought privileges will be swept away as the state
formally takes the means of production into its own hands. How right Lenin was
when he said that the capitalist would sell you the rope with which you intended to
hang him if he thought he could make a profit on the sale.(p. 80)"
Are we living in that time? Will the current political unrest in the world of the EU and American see a new war in the Middle-east soon? Iran? Israel? Unless we begin to wake up from this psychotic nightmare is there any hope?
"I am moving on: my new project is about methods on how to domesticate the unknown, exploit randomness, figure out how to live in a world we don't understand very well."
- Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Fourth Quadrant
Nassim Nicholas Taleb author of The Black Swan recently said that "while most human thought (particularly since the enlightenment) has focused us on how to turn knowledge into decisions, my new mission is to build methods to turn lack of information, lack of understanding, and lack of "knowledge" into decisions—how, as we will see, not to be a "turkey"." Socrates once said "I know that I know nothing". The idea of turning one's lack of knowing into a positive formula for decision making seems interesting if not quite original. What is original is that he is speaking of probability theory, the use of statistical analysis based upon mathematical assumptions
After twenty years in the business of managing portfolios he realized that there is a divorce between the theoretical mapping of reality using statistical models and the actual lived world. "So knowledge ...matters little, very little in many situations. In the real world, there are very few situations where what you do and your belief if some statement is true or false naively map into each other." He goes on to tell us that there are two types of decision making: 1) The first type of decisions is simple, "binary", i.e. you just care if something is true or false.; and, 2) The second type of decisions is more complex. You do not just care of the frequency—but of the impact as well, or, even more complex, some function of the impact.
He goes into a full discussion of probability theory and how it relates to his Black Swan theories. read more... Not being a mathematician or logician I'll let the reader pursue the full extent of his theory. Yet, he does come up with some interesting ideas on wisdom. He provides a set of guidelines or Phronetic Rules: What Is Wise To Do (Or Not Do) In The Fourth Quadrant:
1) Avoid Optimization, Learn to Love Redundancy.
2) Avoid prediction of remote payoffs
3) Beware the "atypicality" of remote events.
4) Time.
5) Beware Moral Hazard.
6) Metrics.
7) Where is the skewness?
8) Do not confuse absence of volatility with absence of risks.
9) Beware presentations of risk numbers.
His main gist is that in the Fourth Quadrant statistical analysis breaks down and decision making can no longer be founded on probability theory but is now negotiated through a set of rules based upon our lack of understanding rather than on models of mathematical precision. An interesting theory which he seems to applying to Climatic change.
“A black swan is an outlier, an event that lies beyond the realm of normal expectations. Most people expect all swans to be white because that’s what their experience tells them; a black swan is by definition a surprise.”
The polar regions, which are warming up to three times as fast as the rest of the planet, are our black swan.
With increasing evidence that the warmed world faces the release of massive amounts of methane, a very potent greenhouse gas, from a superheated tundra, this particular black swan will drive what happens in the rest of the world."
His points made in his book, Black Swan, on the "ludic fallacy" and "narrative fallacy" help understand the complexities of our unknowing and how our minds tend to invent straight-jackets for Reality:
1) Ludic Fallacy:
What is the ludic fallacy? Ludic comes from ludis, Latin for games. … In the casino you know the rules, you can calcalute the odds, and the type of uncertainty we encounter there. …
In real life you do not know the odds; you need to discover them, and the sources of uncertainty are not defined. Economists … draw an artifical distinction between Knightian risks (which you can compute), and Knightian uncertainty (which you cannot compute), after … Frank Knight ….
Yet we automatically, spontaneously associate chance with these Platonified [or "scientitized"] games. …
Those who spend too much time with their noses glued to maps will tend to mistake the map for the territory. … I recently looked at what college students are taught under the subject of chance and came out horrified; they were brainwashed with this ludic fallacy and the outlandish bell curve. The same is true of people doing PhD's in the field of probability theory. … [A]ssuming chance has anything to do with mathematics, what little mathematization we can do in the real world does not assume the mild randomness represented by the bell cureve, but rather scalable wild randomness. What can be mathematized is usually not Gaussian, but Mandelbrotian.
Now, go read any of the great classical thinkers who had something practical to say bout the subject of chance, such as Cicero, and you find … a notion of probability that remains fuzzy throughout, as it needs to be, since such fuzziness is the very nature of [real world] uncertainty. Probability is a liberal art; it is a child of skepticism, not a tool for people with calculators on their belts to satisfy their desire to produce fancy calculations and certainties. Before Western thinking drowned in its "scientific" mentality, what is arrogantly called the Enlightenment, people prompted their brain to think—not compute. … (pp. 127-129)
2) Narrative Fallacy:
We like stories, we like to summarize, and we like to simplify, i.e., to reduce the dimension of matters. The … narrative fallacy… is associated with our vulnerability to overinterpretation and our predilection for compact stories over raw truths. It severely distorts our mental representation of the world; it is particularly acute when it comes to the rare event. …
The narrative fallacy addresses our limited ability to look at sequences of facts without weaving an explanation into them, or, equivalently forcing a logical link, and arrow of relationship, upon them. Explanations bind facts together. They make them all the more easily remembered; they help them make more sense. Where this propensity can go wrong is when it increases our impressions of understanding. …
We … have a hunger for rules because we need to reduce the dimension of matters so they can get into our heads. Or, rather, sadly, so we can squeeze them into our [strictly limited "working memory]. The more random information is, the greater the dimensionality, and thus the more difficult to summarize. The more you summarize the more order you put in, the less randomness. Hence the same conditions that makes us simplify pushes us to think that the world is lesss random than it actually is.
And the Black Swan is what we leave out of simplification.
Both the artistic and scientific enterprises are the product of our need to reduce dimensions and inflict some order on things. … A novel, a story, a myth, or a tale, all have the same function: they spare us from the complexity of the world and shield us from its randomness. Myths impart order to the disorder of human perception and the perceived "chaos of human experience." …
Our tendency to perceive—to impose—narrativity and causality are symptoms of the same disease—dimension reduction. Moreover, like causality, narrativity has a chronological dimension and leads to the perception of the flow of time. Causality makes time flow in a single direction, and so does narrativity. (pp. 63-70)
Trying to force reality into mathematical or narrative models is always a part of the revisioning process of the mind as it collects information, and is something we all must strive to limit and beware of in our search for truth lest we become victims of our own inventiveness to our detriment. Is this not the fictiveness of all human enterprise? Humans have developed these tools gradually over the millennia to guide their social, cultural, political, and religious agendas. Is he saying anything new? Didn't such a philosopher as Nietzsche once state that "What then is truth? A movable host of metaphors, metonymies, and; anthropomorphisms: in short, a sum of human relations which have been poetically and rhetorically intensified, transferred, and embellished, and which, after long usage, seem to a people to be fixed, canonical, and binding." So are not after all bound to the very fallacies of math and narrative that have formed and shaped our vision of the world? Or, shall we begin to question the very nature of those time worn truths that have brought us to the brink, the edge of our own political and economic, not to say climatic destruction? Is is time for new truths? Only time will tell... but how much time do we have?
